As we bid farewell to July, we're still in the midst of earning season. Check out my Charts and Coffee post from Sunday for some charts-only analysis of SPY, AMD, and TSLA.
In broader economic news, there's good news and some things worth being concerned about. US consumer spending continues to increase:
But there's a disturbing trend happening with excess savings.
Retail inventories continue to climb as well. This might be a sign that supply chains are working well again, but we've already seen some companies report excessive inventory in certain areas:
How will AMD and TSLA fare this week? Let's find out. But first:
All investments come with significant risks, including the loss of all capital. Please do your own research before investing, and never risk more than you are willing to lose. I hold no certifications or registrations with any financial entity.
First up, let's get a look at AMD's vanna chart that combines the 8/4, 8/11, and 8/18 expiry dates. This screams bullishness to me, especially since the negative vanna is so small and we have a concentrated positive gamma bar at $115. However, I'm a bit worried that I don't see more vanna past $115 other than the little bar at $120.
AMD's delta-adjusted gamma (DAG) again shows $115 as being a draw for price, but we need something else to push us further past there.
Friday showed a battle between bullish and bearish traders, but we had mainly bullish trading on aggregate for the week:
On aggregate, AMD's gamma exposure (GEX) shows the biggest price magnet sitting around $112 with our ever-so-familiar resistance from $113-$115:
But if we use data from 8/4 only, we see a big draw to $110 with a smaller price magnet around $117-$119. However, we need to find a way over the resistance at $115 to make it there:
And it looks like 8/18 might be our ticket there. AMD's most bullish expiry is 8/18 and we have a GEX chart here that allows for mostly free running of price from $103 to about $125. As a reminder, AMD has wrestled with liquidity issues from $118-$120 in the past.
Big money options traders soured on the $115 strike recently but started getting slightly more bullish recently.
Can dark pool trades help us correlate this data a bit? AMD's been building out a big base around $110 lately, but the $113 level started standing out from the crowd late last week. Dark pools went fiercely bearish on 7/21 and have gone slightly more bearish since then:
Vanna for TSLA through 9/15 is tightly packed and looking fairly bearish. Selling pressure shows up at $265 and $270 with a small amount of buying pressure in between:
On aggregate, TSLA's GEX looks like it has a little room to run up to $270 before it starts running into resistance from positive GEX. Price could be drawn down to $262.50 since we find the largest negative GEX bar there, but the positive GEX bar at $265 should resist that movement:
Zooming into this week only (8/4) for TSLA shows that we have a free range from $265 to $275. If we get over $275, $280 is the level where price may be pulled. $285 shows up as the next resistance point. We saw last week that the positive GEX bars were respected really well.
As a reminder, TSLA is headed towards a bearish expiry on 8/18 (remember that this chart looks at contracts from the dealer's perspective, not the customer's) with some bullishness returning as we get further along in the year:
Dark pool trades show $265 as a strong level of support. Trades have been mostly bullish so far, but Friday took an abrupt turn downward on increased volume. These levels suggest we might find ourselves in a $260-$280 trading channel for a short while:
TSLA looks like it might trade in a $260-$280 range, at least through 8/18. Big money traders are getting bullish in the $250-$260 range and I might consider selling puts at $260 or below if price wanders down there this week. However, as I noted in yesterday's post, TSLA's chart looks pretty overextended, so taking on a bigger position could be risky at this price level.
Then there's AMD. Earnings are announced after the market closes tomorrow, August 1. AMD seems wedged into a tight range for this week and next, likely from $110-$115 again, but keep an eye on that $113 level that began building last week.
The guardrails begin to pull away as we get into 8/18 and AMD has room to run. Sure, the upper end looks to open up to about $120 which is exciting. However, the bottom end could run down to the $105 area. If you've been waiting to get a position started or add to existing position, a price in the very low $100's would be a great opportunity.
As always, you can follow along with my trade notes over on Theta Gang. I'm starting this week with no options positions but a decent amount of long AMD/TSLA shares.
Good luck out there today! 🍀
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